Publications

2010

Milner, Helen V., and Dustin H. Tingley. “The Political Economy of U.S. Foreign Aid: American Legislators and the Domestic Politics of Aid.” Economics & Politics 22.2 (2010): 200–232.

Are there systematic political economy factors that shape preferences for foreign aid, a key component of American foreign policy? We analyze votes in the House of Representatives from 1979 to 2003 that would increase or decrease foreign aid by considering the political, economic, and ideological characteristics of legislators and their districts. To understand who supports and opposes foreign aid, we utilize theories of foreign economic policy preferences. By examining different types of aid policy, we show that domestic politics and especially the distributional consequences of economic aid can matter. The economic characteristics of a district and its left–right ideological predispositions influence support for aid in a systematic fashion over the nearly 25-year period. Stolper–Samuelson models along with political ideology can help explain legislators' preferences toward aid.

2009

Milner, Helen V., and Bumba Mukherjee. “Democratization and Economic Globalization.” Annual Review of Political Science 12 (2009): 163–181.

We address two questions that are central to the literature on the emergence of democracy and economic globalization. First, does democratization foster higher levels of trade and capital account openness? Second, do trade and capital account openness increase the likelihood of democratization? We review the literature in international political economy and comparative politics that has theoretically and empirically addressed these questions. We then conduct some empirical tests in a sample of developing countries to briefly evaluate the empirical relationship between democracy and economic globalization. Our analysis reveals that evidence for the claim that democracy fosters trade and capital account liberalization is robust but that empirical support for the predicted positive effect of economic openness on democracy among developing countries is weak. More theoretical work is needed to clarify the link between democracy and economic liberalization, and to this end we provide possible topics for future research.

2008

Büthe, Tim, and Helen V. Milner. “The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries: Increasing FDI through International Trade Agreements?.” American Journal of Political Science 52.4 (2008): 741–762.

The flow of foreign direct investment into developing countries varies greatly across countries and over time. The political factors that affect these flows are not well understood. Focusing on the relationship between trade and investment, we argue that international trade agreements—GATT/WTO and preferential trade agreements (PTAs)—provide mechanisms for making commitments to foreign investors about the treatment of their assets, thus reassuring investors and increasing investment. These international commitments are more credible than domestic policy choices, because reneging on them is more costly. Statistical analyses for 122 developing countries from 1970 to 2000 support this argument. Developing countries that belong to the WTO and participate in more PTAs experience greater FDI inflows than otherwise, controlling for many factors including domestic policy preferences and taking into account possible endogeneity. Joining international trade agreements allows developing countries to attract more FDI and thus increase economic growth.

Mansfield, Edward D., Helen V. Milner, and Jon C. Pevehouse. “Democracy, Veto Players and the Depth of Regional Integration.” World Economy 31.1 (2008): 67–96.

We examine how domestic political factors influence the type of regional integration arrangement (RIA) that states enter. States can pursue at least five types of RIA, in order of their depth of policy integration: preferential trade agreements, free trade areas, customs unions, common markets and economic unions. We argue that a country's regime type and the number of institutional ‘veto players’ strongly affect the type of arrangement that states choose. Democracies are more likely to form an RIA than other states, a tendency that becomes more pronounced as the proposed level of integration in an arrangement rises. However, all democracies are not the same. As the number of veto players rises, the likelihood of a democracy entering an RIA declines. Furthermore, veto players are expected to have a larger effect on the odds of a democracy forming an RIA, the greater is the extent of integration that the arrangement aims to achieve. A series of statistical tests, based on analysis of all pairs of countries from 1950 to 2000, support our arguments.

2007

Andonova, Liliana, Edward D. Mansfield, and Helen V. Milner. “International Trade and Environmental Policy in the Postcommunist World.” Comparative Political Studies 40.7 (2007): 782–807.

This article examines whether commercial openness has affected environmental policy in the postcommunist countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. During the Cold War, these countries had closed trade regimes combined with little environmental regulation and poor environmental quality. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the breakup of the Soviet Union, many postcommunist countries have engaged in extensive trade liberalization. Some countries, however, have been slower to open their markets, and others have maintained highly protectionist trade policies. Have countries that opened up to global markets improved their environmental policies, or has increasing exposure to the international trading system undermined efforts to improve environmental policy? The results indicate that trade openness undermined a key element of environmental policy in the region by reducing governments' ability to collect environmental taxes and support environmental investments.

Mansfield, Edward D., Helen V. Milner, and Jon C. Pevehouse. “Vetoing Co-Operation: The Impact of Veto Players on Preferential Trading Arrangements.” British Journal of Political Science 37.3 (2007): 403–432.

Since the Second World War, preferential trading arrangements (PTAs) have become increasingly pervasive features of the international economic system. A great deal of research has addressed the economic consequences of these arrangements, but far less effort has been made to identify the political factors leading states to enter them. In this article, the domestic political factors affecting whether countries enter PTAs are investigated, placing particular emphasis on the number of veto players within a state. It is argued that the probability of forming a PTA declines as the number of such players rises. The results, covering 194 countries from 1950 to 1999, strongly support this argument. Holding various political and economic factors constant, increasing the number of veto players within a country significantly reduces the probability of signing a PTA.

2006

Milner, Helen V. “The Digital Divide: The Role of Political Institutions in Technology Diffusion.” Comparative Political Studies 39.2 (2006): 176–199.

What factors have promoted and retarded the spread of the Internet globally? The Internet is one example of the diffusion of technology. Much as other technologies, the Internet has diffused unevenly across countries, raising concerns over a “digital divide.” My main proposition is that its spread has been driven by neither technological nor economic factors alone. Rather, political factors exert a powerful influence. Groups that believe they will lose from the Internet use political institutions to enact policies that block the spread of the Internet. Some political institutions make this easier than others. Data from roughly 190 countries from 1991 to 2001 showthat a country's regime type matters greatly, even when controlling for other economic, technological, political, and sociological factors. Democratic governments facilitate the spread of the Internet relative to autocratic ones. Thus, the spread of democracy may help reduce the digital divide.

Milner, Helen V. et al. “Why Multilateralism? Foreign Aid and Domestic Principal-Agent Problems.” Delegation and Agency in International Organizations. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006. 107–139.

Why do countries delegate the distribution of foreign aid to international institutions? Why would governments relinquish control over their aid if they are a useful instrument of statecraft? Governments delegate aid delivery to international institutions when their publics lack information about the consequences of aid and fear that their governments will deviate from their preferences concerning its use. By using the international organization to send aid, the government issues a credible signal to domestic groups about the use of foreign aid. This signal leaves all actors better off by helping to solve a principal-agent problem in domestic politics. When publics are more skeptical about the benefits of aid, governments are more likely to turn aid over to multilateral organizations in order to reassure taxpayers that their money is being well spent. Using data on about 20 donor countries of the OECD from 1960-2000, I investigate the sources of multilateral giving, showing that public opinion has the expected negative relationship to multilateral aid-giving.

2005

Milner, Helen V. “Review Essay: Globalization, Development, and International Institutions: Normative and Positive Perspectives..” Perspectives on Politics 3.4 (2005): 833–854.

1. Introduction. 2. A Brief Review of the Books. 3. The Role of the International Economic Institutions. 4. The Experience of the Developing Countries. 5. Theories about the Functions and Benefits of International Institutions. 1) Constraining the Great Powers. 2) Providing Information and Reducing Transaction Costs. 3) Facilitating Reciprocity. 4) Facilitating Reform in Domestic Politics. 6. Four Sources of the Problems with International Institutions. 1) No Impact. 2) Capture by the Powerful Developed Countries. 3) Capture by Private Producers and Investors. 4) Internal Dysfunctions and Failure of Accountability. 7. International Justice and Institutions: Normative Perspectives. 1) Distributive Justice is Global. 2) Current Counterfactual Assessments are Insufficient. 3) The "Nationalist" Research Agenda Must Change. 8. Conclusions: What is to be Done?

Milner, Helen V., and Keiko Kubota. “Why the Move to Free Trade? Democracy and Trade Policy in the Developing Countries.” International Organization 59.1 (2005): 107–143.

Rising international trade flows are a primary component of globalization. The liberalization of trade policy in many developing countries has helped foster the growth of these flows. Preceding and concurrent with this move to free trade, there has been a global movement toward democracy. We argue that these two trends are related: democratization of the political system reduces the ability of governments to use trade barriers as a strategy for building political support. Political leaders in labor-rich countries may prefer lower trade barriers as democracy increases. Empirical evidence supports our claim about the developing countries from 1970–99. Regime change toward democracy is associated with trade liberalization, controlling for many factors. Conventional explanations of economic reform, such as economic crises and external pressures, seem less salient. Democratization may have fostered globalization in this period.

2004

Milner, Helen V., and Benjamin Judkins. “Partisanship, Trade Policy, and Globalization: Is There a Left–Right Divide on Trade Policy?.” International Studies Quarterly 48.1 (2004): 95–120.

Are there noticeable differences among political parties in a country over their trade policy positions? Do left parties advocate different trade policies than right parties? In the advanced industrial countries where labor tends to be scarce, are left parties more protectionist than right ones, which represent capital owners? Political institutions within these democratic countries may affect the role of partisanship. We also investigate whether increasing globalization has led to more or less partisan polarization over trade policy. We examine 25 developed countries from 1945 to 1998 to see how their parties have competed over trade policy. Controlling for various factors, partisanship matters. Right parties consistently take more free trade stances than do left ones. Globalization and other international forces have also shaped both the nature and the extent of the domestic debate over exposure to international trade.