Deep Roots: On the Persistence of American Populism

Publication Year
2023

Type

Article
Abstract

Does public enthusiasm for populist politics recur within the same regions over time? We show that contemporary American populism has deep historical roots, with political attitudes persisting across generations in geographically stable communities. We document a strong association between historical and contemporary populist voting in the United States. Using county-level data linking support for the People’s Party in the 1890s to recent presidential elections, we find that areas with greater historical populist support exhibit higher vote shares for Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020. These patterns are not explained by support for other major parties in the 1890s. We further show that historically populist counties today display stronger populist attitudes, higher racial resentment, and more restrictive views on immigration, and tend to experience lower net migration. These findings extend the "recurrent populism" thesis from the cross-national to the subnational level, demonstrating that the spatial bases of populist voting today are shaped not only by contemporary conditions but also by historical political behavior.

Publication Status
Working Papers
Journal
SSRN